New Developments in the U.S. Restaurant Market (2025)

Byline: August 24, 2025

1) Demand is resilient, but value is the new battlefield

After years of whiplash from inflation and shifting consumer habits, restaurants entered 2025 with surprisingly sturdy fundamentals. Industry forecasts put sales at $1.5 trillion this year, supported by nearly 16 million workers.

The growth, however, comes with a decisive pivot to value. McDonald’s recently secured franchisee agreement to price eight core combo meals about 15% below the sum of their parts and revive “Extra Value Meals” with $5 and $8 timed deals.

Spending rose 2% in 2024 even as traffic flatlined, showing that check growth rather than visit growth has driven industry expansion.

2) The pricing rulebook is being rewritten by regulation

Regulatory shifts in 2025 are reshaping how restaurants display pricing:

– California’s “Honest Pricing Law” requires restaurants to display the full cost of items upfront, banning hidden surcharges.
– New York tightened its rules on credit-card surcharges, requiring full disclosure before checkout.

The net result is fewer “junk fee” add-ons and more transparent menu boards.

3) Labor: wage pressure meets mixed evidence on job effects

Labor still defines the economic reality of restaurants. California’s $20 fast-food minimum wage, implemented in 2024, has already led to measurable wage gains for workers. Early studies suggest no clear evidence of statewide job loss yet, though operators continue to seek productivity offsets through automation and smarter promotions.

4) Tech is getting pragmatic: automation where it pays, people where it counts

If 2021–23 was about experimentation, 2025 is about disciplined deployment.

– Sweetgreen is scaling its Infinite Kitchen format from a dozen locations at the end of 2024 to more than 30 in 2025.
– Starbucks has slowed its “Siren System” rollout, choosing to refocus on baristas and the in-store experience.
– Robotics remain in limited deployment, with a focus on ROI rather than hype.

5) Loyalty 2.0: simpler access, clever segmentation, and new cohorts

Loyalty in 2025 is being reimagined. Many brands are ditching app-heavy programs in favor of wallet-native or POS-integrated solutions. Chipotle even introduced a college-only rewards tier, blending student life with brand engagement.

6) Consumer behavior is shifting, with GLP-1s and “smaller everything”

Two trends are redefining menus in 2025:

– The rise of GLP-1 medications is driving smaller portions, higher protein choices, and lower alcohol consumption.
– Portion-right sizing has gone mainstream, with half-sizes, minis, and shareable plates now common.

These behaviors reinforce that value isn’t just about low prices, it’s about portion–price fit and nutritional alignment.

7) Capital & consolidation: selectivity returns

Dealmakers in 2025 are focusing on growth capital for brands with strong unit economics, especially those with drive-thru access, off-premise strength, or automation advantages. The priority has shifted from rapid top-line growth to disciplined, cash-on-cash returns.

Quick Stat Sheet (2025)

Author – Robert Ancill

https://www.robertancill.com

Sources

1. National Restaurant Association, 2025 forecast
   2. Circana 2025 Restaurant Rankings Report
   3. UC Berkeley IRLE, Fast-Food Minimum Wage Study (2025)
   4. California SB 478 (“Honest Pricing Law”), effective July 2024
   5. New York Credit-Card Surcharge Rules, effective February 2024
   6. Lightspeed/Circana consumer behavior data (2024–25)
   7. McDonald’s franchisee pricing agreements (2025)
   8. Sweetgreen Infinite Kitchen expansion announcements (2025)
   9. Starbucks Siren System rollout updates (2025)
   10. Chipotle College Rewards Program (2025)
   11. Industry analyses on GLP-1 consumer impacts (2025)